I've once heard a saying that there are only two seasons in the year. Winter and Baseball. While I am all for changing the calenders accordingly, I don't think people with yearly cat calendars will appreciate it. In regards to to the Giants winter this year, it hasn't been pretty thus far, but it hasn't been ugly either. Without going into depth about who had arbitration, salary raises, re-signings, and who dated who, I just want to discuss the two newest acquisitions to date. Melky Cabrera and Angel Pagan. I'm fairly certain that "The Franchise" will go on to have a quiet off season for the remainder, which makes for a closer debate on the two new Giants.
Melky Cabrera trade with the Kansas City Royals
Giants trade - Jonathan Sanchez, Ryan Verdugo (minor league prospect)
Royals trade - Melky Cabrera
Pros: Cabrera had a breakout year last year going .305/18/87 with 20 stolen bases and 102 runs. Adds speed to a slow lineup. Younger roster. Potentially saves money.
Cons: Cabrera has only one solid year, previous years are mediocre. Jonathan Sanchez has a more promising future on paper.
Overall: Not a fan of this trade. The key to being successful in baseball is consistency, and while consistency is also one of the hardest things to achieve, Cabrera has not been consistent. Too often in the MLB is one breakout season overvalued. Barry Zito is a perfect example. I know I'm being a pessimist but its hard to positive towards a player when the sport is relentless towards promising seasons. On the other hand, I do like Cabrera's speed and base running abilities, which is a very welcome addition. On the other other hand, Jonathan Sanchez was a personal gut blow to me. I believe that he can only get better due to his ridiculous high potential (I feel very biased here). I do understand however, that the Giants were very patient with him and that patience had grown thin. All the hate towards this trade aside, there is always a chance that Cabrera continues his breakout performance.
Angel Pagan trade with the New York Mets
Giants trade - Andres Torres, Ramon Ramirez
Mets trade - Angel Pagan
Pros: Veteran presence. Great speed to lineup. Great base stealer. Traded little for a greater upside.
Cons: Rumored to dislike the lead off spot. Mediocre defender. Lost a fast arm.
Overall: I like this trade (I could also be a little biased here). Pagan is a great base stealer with 37 in 2010 and 32 in 2011. Stealing 2nd base at the top of the line up could be crucial for Freddy Sanchez and Buster Posey who hit gap to gap, enabling Pagan to score easily. While It's obvious that this will won't happen all the time, fans can look for this formula throughout the season. I imagine that Pagan will have a on-going green light to steal, something Giants fans have missed in the last few seasons. I discourage the rumors about Pagan's personal preference to lead off, as a true lead off hitter is exactly what the Giants need.
Potential Lineup of 2012
1. Angel Pagan CF
2. Freddy Sanchez 2B
3. Pablo Sandoval 3B
4. Buster Posey C
5. Melky Cabrera LF
6. Aubrey Huff 1B
7. Nate Schierholtz RF
8. Brandon Crawford SS
9. Tim Lincecum P
This honestly scares me to death. If one of these players gets hurt, the wins above replacement in the lineup will take a plunge. Injuries do happen and the depth of the Giants is not what it was last year - which was severely tested as we all remember. Mike Fontenot and Emmanuel Burriss will be considered back ups for the infield while Chris Stewart will back up Buster Posey. The 2012 season could possibly make way for a new upcoming rookie or a breakout season for any non starter who gets a chance.
With the Giants winter meetings and off season acquisitions and trades potentially over, the two trades thus far will make an impact. Even if Cabrera and Pagan don't hit as subscribed, the changes in speed will help dramatically. Like every beginning to a season, breakdowns and analytics can only go so far. By the opening game, the "Pagan formula" will hopefully be in daily effect.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Monday, June 13, 2011
Shenanigans
Does anyone remember where they were and what they were doing when they heard that terrorists attacked on September 11, 2001? What about when Barack Obama was elected? Even more recently, what were people doing when Osama bin Laden was killed? How about when Scott Cousins collided with Buster Posey at a play at the plate leaving Posey with a broken leg. Sure, Buster Posey's injury is no where near the scale of the other events that I mentioned, but it still left a heart-sinking feeling into many Giants/Posey fans. Posey will ultimately miss the rest of the season after a successful surgery on his fibula and torn ligaments in his ankle. The rest of this year will be a continuous rehab for Posey as he continues to become healthier in preparation for the 2012 season. Posey's collision continues to be one of the central topics for Major League Baseball and its rules towards plays at home plate. Posey requested that the league look into changing the rule in anyway, to protect the catchers that sometime can be defenseless. On an even more depressing side note, Freddy Sanchez might miss the rest of the season as well due to a dislocated shoulder. So with the recent and past injuries, what does this mean for the Giants for the rest of the season?
Lets look at yesterdays lineup against the Cincinnati Reds: (June 12, 2011)
1. Torres CF
2. Tejada 3B
3. Schierholtz RF
4. Huff 1B
5. Ross LF
6. Crawford SS
7. Burriss 2B
8. Stewart C
9. J. Sanchez P
Honestly...kind of depressing. While fans want all these guys to do well and there is nothing but confidence in Bruce Bochy, this line up is definitely lack luster. A few things stand out here. Schierholtz is not a number 3 hitter. If you take away the last 3 games, Tejada is not a number 2 hitter. There is absolutely NO production from the catcher position offensively. So how do they improve: trade and/or play the waiting game. Currently, the trade talks and free agent signings are very quiet as there is still a month before the all-star break. However, there is some talk about the Giants acquiring Mark Ellis from the Athletics. Without breaking this down into intricate detail, I'm going to summarize this rumor by saying that I'd rather the Giants have Bill Hall (who they signed as soon as Sanchez went down), than Ellis. For the waiting game, the Giants have to do just that, wait. Wait for Brandon Belt to recover from the hit by pitch. Wait for Pablo Sandoval to start producing again (will start tomorrow against the Diamondbacks. June 14, 2011). Wait for Barry Zito to finish his rehab assignment. Make no mistake, Zito will open doors to trades in the future. After the all-star break, the line up could look like this:
1. Torres CF
2. Belt RF or 1B (if living up to potential)
3. Sandoval 3B
4. Huff 1B or RF
5. Ross LF
6. Crawford or Tejada SS
7. Burriss or Hall or a traded player 2B
8. Whiteside or a traded player C
9. Lincecum P
Definitely a lot less depressing, especially if the Giants pick up a player via trade. *cough* Jose Reyes *cough* To dive deeper into trading, I feel like the Giants could make a strong case for trading Ryan Voglesong as his value has never been higher. With so many teams looking for decent pitching, infield help would be most welcome and Zito would resume his role back in the rotation. All in all the Giants are still in first place as the division seems to be fairly weak right now. Also, injuries are extremely high this year on all teams throughout the league. So before other Giants fans start complaining about injuries, just tell them to take a look around. Thanks for reading and enjoy the summer!
Final food for thought: Major League Baseball is looking to change or remove divisions and leagues in different ways. Rumors currently have two suggestions. One is to take out all divisions and reward the play-offs to the top 5 teams in both leagues. The other is to remove both current divisions and leagues and create regional leagues. For example the California League, hosting the Giants, Angles, Dodgers, Athletics, and Padres. In any case, change seems to be immanent.
Lets look at yesterdays lineup against the Cincinnati Reds: (June 12, 2011)
1. Torres CF
2. Tejada 3B
3. Schierholtz RF
4. Huff 1B
5. Ross LF
6. Crawford SS
7. Burriss 2B
8. Stewart C
9. J. Sanchez P
Honestly...kind of depressing. While fans want all these guys to do well and there is nothing but confidence in Bruce Bochy, this line up is definitely lack luster. A few things stand out here. Schierholtz is not a number 3 hitter. If you take away the last 3 games, Tejada is not a number 2 hitter. There is absolutely NO production from the catcher position offensively. So how do they improve: trade and/or play the waiting game. Currently, the trade talks and free agent signings are very quiet as there is still a month before the all-star break. However, there is some talk about the Giants acquiring Mark Ellis from the Athletics. Without breaking this down into intricate detail, I'm going to summarize this rumor by saying that I'd rather the Giants have Bill Hall (who they signed as soon as Sanchez went down), than Ellis. For the waiting game, the Giants have to do just that, wait. Wait for Brandon Belt to recover from the hit by pitch. Wait for Pablo Sandoval to start producing again (will start tomorrow against the Diamondbacks. June 14, 2011). Wait for Barry Zito to finish his rehab assignment. Make no mistake, Zito will open doors to trades in the future. After the all-star break, the line up could look like this:
1. Torres CF
2. Belt RF or 1B (if living up to potential)
3. Sandoval 3B
4. Huff 1B or RF
5. Ross LF
6. Crawford or Tejada SS
7. Burriss or Hall or a traded player 2B
8. Whiteside or a traded player C
9. Lincecum P
Definitely a lot less depressing, especially if the Giants pick up a player via trade. *cough* Jose Reyes *cough* To dive deeper into trading, I feel like the Giants could make a strong case for trading Ryan Voglesong as his value has never been higher. With so many teams looking for decent pitching, infield help would be most welcome and Zito would resume his role back in the rotation. All in all the Giants are still in first place as the division seems to be fairly weak right now. Also, injuries are extremely high this year on all teams throughout the league. So before other Giants fans start complaining about injuries, just tell them to take a look around. Thanks for reading and enjoy the summer!
Final food for thought: Major League Baseball is looking to change or remove divisions and leagues in different ways. Rumors currently have two suggestions. One is to take out all divisions and reward the play-offs to the top 5 teams in both leagues. The other is to remove both current divisions and leagues and create regional leagues. For example the California League, hosting the Giants, Angles, Dodgers, Athletics, and Padres. In any case, change seems to be immanent.
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Expect the....Expected
Its a week till pitchers and catchers report and I can already smell the hot dogs and pine tar. Coming off what just might be the biggest and celebrated off season in Giants history, optimism is certainly in the air. Optimism in repeating. Lets face that one championship is not enough, and look towards this season with eagerness, poise, and confidence, knowing that San Francisco is the world champion. So what will it take for another title? With spring training set to go underway, and the season forever approaching, take a moment (we'll keep it brief), and reflect on what needs to be done to establish a dominance once again.
The first and most important aspect in repeating a championship, is health. Personally, I feel that the biggest reason the Giants became so deadly throughout most of the season was because of the pitching staff staying healthy. The only pitcher to go on the disabled list last season was Todd Wellemeyer. The sole fact that Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and even Barry Zito, stayed healthy and made their respective starts, fueled their chance at a championship. Therefore, it makes no difference in this years goal. The starting staff staying healthy is unequivocally the utmost important thing towards this years chances. So lets flip it and look at the worst case scenario. Figuratively, lets say that Matt Cain goes down on the 15 day DL for a strained groin (knock on wood). The person to take his place would most likely be Jeff Suppan, if not an arm from the bullpen such as Dan Runzler. Suppan is definitely a experienced veteran, but is he a Matt Cain? Hell no. Its obvious that Suppan's best days are behind him and while losing a starting pitcher to this veteran wouldn't be the worst thing ever, I believe the Giants don't want to take their chances. Lets stay healthy starting staff, we all know San Francisco would be next to nothing without them.
On the offensive side, full seasons from Buster Posey, Freddy Sanchez, and continuing confidence from Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres will contribute greatly. Posey being the main key in this years line up, is projected to have a great season, hopefully without the sophomore slump (*cough* Sandoval *cough*). Miguel Tejada, being the new addition should have a mediocre year being at his older age. While he is a solid replacement for Juan Uribe, Tejada should project a 270/330/400 average, on base, and slugging percentage. I also expect Aaron Rowand to contribute more this year as well. The 33 year old veteran always seems to be on a tear before an injury, which seems to plague his second half. The biggest question for the offensive side is Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval has been reported to lose more than 20 lbs. during the off season, in hopes to be the player he was in 2009. With only one major signing to the offense, look for the numbers to be slightly better this year but more don't steer away from the familiar territory of "torture".
Tim Kirkjian, an ESPN Baseball analyst wrote a great article discussing the effects of pitchers arms in the postseason and their chances at a repeat. Kirkjian explains that tired arms have extremely low chances of repeating success in the following season, which he backs with statistics. Likewise, If anyone were to ask any of the pitchers who pitched deep into the post season, they would most likely receive a cliche answer (some answers are in the article). Being a baseball enthusiast first and a Giants fan second, I am inclined to agree with these numbers and history. Feel free to discuss these things with or without me, but my confidence in the Giants winning another championship is extremely small. However, I do feel like they will win the West, and make a good push during the post season. While I bring words of discouragement and foretold predictions, fear not! With a healthy starting staff, solid defense, and a familiar offense with an all-star catcher on the rise, more sweet torture is poised to make a comeback and I believe it will not disappoint. Have a safe and enjoyable 2011 season.
On a totally off topic side note, I recently read the famous book "Moneyball". A few weeks ago, I conjured up a question that I would love to discuss with anyone who read the book and watched Juan Uribe rake. In "Moneyball", the Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, stresses the importance of on base percentage and its role. In contrast, Uribe had an a horrible on base percentage of about .300 but came up clutch with hits time and time again. According to the book, Beane would never play a player like Uribe. I personally believe that on base percentage is probably the most important stat of a hitter. But how important is it really when a player with a low percentage played a huge part in a championship. Perhaps on base percentage has changed as "Moneyball" was written in the beginning of the decade and the game is ever changing. Something to think about.
The first and most important aspect in repeating a championship, is health. Personally, I feel that the biggest reason the Giants became so deadly throughout most of the season was because of the pitching staff staying healthy. The only pitcher to go on the disabled list last season was Todd Wellemeyer. The sole fact that Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and even Barry Zito, stayed healthy and made their respective starts, fueled their chance at a championship. Therefore, it makes no difference in this years goal. The starting staff staying healthy is unequivocally the utmost important thing towards this years chances. So lets flip it and look at the worst case scenario. Figuratively, lets say that Matt Cain goes down on the 15 day DL for a strained groin (knock on wood). The person to take his place would most likely be Jeff Suppan, if not an arm from the bullpen such as Dan Runzler. Suppan is definitely a experienced veteran, but is he a Matt Cain? Hell no. Its obvious that Suppan's best days are behind him and while losing a starting pitcher to this veteran wouldn't be the worst thing ever, I believe the Giants don't want to take their chances. Lets stay healthy starting staff, we all know San Francisco would be next to nothing without them.
On the offensive side, full seasons from Buster Posey, Freddy Sanchez, and continuing confidence from Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres will contribute greatly. Posey being the main key in this years line up, is projected to have a great season, hopefully without the sophomore slump (*cough* Sandoval *cough*). Miguel Tejada, being the new addition should have a mediocre year being at his older age. While he is a solid replacement for Juan Uribe, Tejada should project a 270/330/400 average, on base, and slugging percentage. I also expect Aaron Rowand to contribute more this year as well. The 33 year old veteran always seems to be on a tear before an injury, which seems to plague his second half. The biggest question for the offensive side is Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval has been reported to lose more than 20 lbs. during the off season, in hopes to be the player he was in 2009. With only one major signing to the offense, look for the numbers to be slightly better this year but more don't steer away from the familiar territory of "torture".
Tim Kirkjian, an ESPN Baseball analyst wrote a great article discussing the effects of pitchers arms in the postseason and their chances at a repeat. Kirkjian explains that tired arms have extremely low chances of repeating success in the following season, which he backs with statistics. Likewise, If anyone were to ask any of the pitchers who pitched deep into the post season, they would most likely receive a cliche answer (some answers are in the article). Being a baseball enthusiast first and a Giants fan second, I am inclined to agree with these numbers and history. Feel free to discuss these things with or without me, but my confidence in the Giants winning another championship is extremely small. However, I do feel like they will win the West, and make a good push during the post season. While I bring words of discouragement and foretold predictions, fear not! With a healthy starting staff, solid defense, and a familiar offense with an all-star catcher on the rise, more sweet torture is poised to make a comeback and I believe it will not disappoint. Have a safe and enjoyable 2011 season.
On a totally off topic side note, I recently read the famous book "Moneyball". A few weeks ago, I conjured up a question that I would love to discuss with anyone who read the book and watched Juan Uribe rake. In "Moneyball", the Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, stresses the importance of on base percentage and its role. In contrast, Uribe had an a horrible on base percentage of about .300 but came up clutch with hits time and time again. According to the book, Beane would never play a player like Uribe. I personally believe that on base percentage is probably the most important stat of a hitter. But how important is it really when a player with a low percentage played a huge part in a championship. Perhaps on base percentage has changed as "Moneyball" was written in the beginning of the decade and the game is ever changing. Something to think about.
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