Its a week till pitchers and catchers report and I can already smell the hot dogs and pine tar. Coming off what just might be the biggest and celebrated off season in Giants history, optimism is certainly in the air. Optimism in repeating. Lets face that one championship is not enough, and look towards this season with eagerness, poise, and confidence, knowing that San Francisco is the world champion. So what will it take for another title? With spring training set to go underway, and the season forever approaching, take a moment (we'll keep it brief), and reflect on what needs to be done to establish a dominance once again.
The first and most important aspect in repeating a championship, is health. Personally, I feel that the biggest reason the Giants became so deadly throughout most of the season was because of the pitching staff staying healthy. The only pitcher to go on the disabled list last season was Todd Wellemeyer. The sole fact that Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner, and even Barry Zito, stayed healthy and made their respective starts, fueled their chance at a championship. Therefore, it makes no difference in this years goal. The starting staff staying healthy is unequivocally the utmost important thing towards this years chances. So lets flip it and look at the worst case scenario. Figuratively, lets say that Matt Cain goes down on the 15 day DL for a strained groin (knock on wood). The person to take his place would most likely be Jeff Suppan, if not an arm from the bullpen such as Dan Runzler. Suppan is definitely a experienced veteran, but is he a Matt Cain? Hell no. Its obvious that Suppan's best days are behind him and while losing a starting pitcher to this veteran wouldn't be the worst thing ever, I believe the Giants don't want to take their chances. Lets stay healthy starting staff, we all know San Francisco would be next to nothing without them.
On the offensive side, full seasons from Buster Posey, Freddy Sanchez, and continuing confidence from Aubrey Huff and Andres Torres will contribute greatly. Posey being the main key in this years line up, is projected to have a great season, hopefully without the sophomore slump (*cough* Sandoval *cough*). Miguel Tejada, being the new addition should have a mediocre year being at his older age. While he is a solid replacement for Juan Uribe, Tejada should project a 270/330/400 average, on base, and slugging percentage. I also expect Aaron Rowand to contribute more this year as well. The 33 year old veteran always seems to be on a tear before an injury, which seems to plague his second half. The biggest question for the offensive side is Pablo Sandoval. Sandoval has been reported to lose more than 20 lbs. during the off season, in hopes to be the player he was in 2009. With only one major signing to the offense, look for the numbers to be slightly better this year but more don't steer away from the familiar territory of "torture".
Tim Kirkjian, an ESPN Baseball analyst wrote a great article discussing the effects of pitchers arms in the postseason and their chances at a repeat. Kirkjian explains that tired arms have extremely low chances of repeating success in the following season, which he backs with statistics. Likewise, If anyone were to ask any of the pitchers who pitched deep into the post season, they would most likely receive a cliche answer (some answers are in the article). Being a baseball enthusiast first and a Giants fan second, I am inclined to agree with these numbers and history. Feel free to discuss these things with or without me, but my confidence in the Giants winning another championship is extremely small. However, I do feel like they will win the West, and make a good push during the post season. While I bring words of discouragement and foretold predictions, fear not! With a healthy starting staff, solid defense, and a familiar offense with an all-star catcher on the rise, more sweet torture is poised to make a comeback and I believe it will not disappoint. Have a safe and enjoyable 2011 season.
On a totally off topic side note, I recently read the famous book "Moneyball". A few weeks ago, I conjured up a question that I would love to discuss with anyone who read the book and watched Juan Uribe rake. In "Moneyball", the Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane, stresses the importance of on base percentage and its role. In contrast, Uribe had an a horrible on base percentage of about .300 but came up clutch with hits time and time again. According to the book, Beane would never play a player like Uribe. I personally believe that on base percentage is probably the most important stat of a hitter. But how important is it really when a player with a low percentage played a huge part in a championship. Perhaps on base percentage has changed as "Moneyball" was written in the beginning of the decade and the game is ever changing. Something to think about.
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